Lindy Effect

From Weekly I/O#91


Lindy Effect: The longer a non-perishable item or idea has been around, the longer it's likely to persist into the future.

Paper: Lindy as a Distance from an Absorbing Barrier

Learn this concept again when bumping into Nassim Nicholas Taleb's paper.

Lindy's effects describe the situation where the future life expectancy of something non-perishable (like ideas, technologies, books, or culture) is proportional to its current age.

Basically, if something has existed for a long time, there's a higher chance it will continue to exist for a long time. It's important to note that it's probabilistic, not deterministic because there are always exceptions.

I like to use Lindy effect as a heuristic to choose which books to read and which movies to watch. By considering the length of time a book or movie has been relevant, we can filter out noise and identify those that are more likely to contain tested and valuable ideas.

The test of time quite often is the most reliable noise filter!


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