Moore's Law for Everything

From Weekly I/O#40

Moore's Law for Everything: Everything will become half as expensive every two years due to exponential technological progress and AI lowering cost that requires labor.

Article: Moore's Law for Everything

In this article, Sam Altman painted the future where the AI revolution will generate enough wealth for everyone to have what they need under responsible societal management. The revolution is still primitive, but the trends are clear. As the CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman definitely should be optimistic about AI. But I think the trends are even more evident at this point. Seeing what DALL·E 2 and GPT-3 from OpenAI can achieve makes Sam Altman's opinion not just too optimistic. Below is his point:

Technology progresses exponentially. We have no smartphone 15 years ago, no home electricity 150 years ago, no industrial machines 1,500 years ago, and no agriculture 15,000 years ago. Sam Altman argued that technological progress in the next 100 years would be more significant than all we've made since we first controlled fire.

There are two ways to afford a better life: earn more money or the price fall. The latter is better for increasing societal wealth since everyone is wealthier where wealth is purchasing power. Technology has already decreased the price in many categories. For instance, chips became twice as powerful for the same price almost every two years for decades. This is Moore's Law.

Prices for TV, computer, and entertainment have dropped over the past decades, but other costs such as housing, healthcare, and education have risen significantly. Optimistically, AI will also lower the cost of most services because labor is the driving cost and AI should free up most labor. Therefore, Moore's Law can be applied not only to semiconductors, but to everything. Purchasing power will be twice as powerful every two years.

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