Munger’s Two-Track Analysis

From Weekly I/O#122


Two-Track Analysis: Examine both rational factors and psychological biases when making decisions. Munger identified 25 tendencies that distort our thinking.

Book: Poor Charlie's Almanack (Stripe Press edition)

How do you make better decisions? Charlie Munger uses what he calls "two-track analysis."

The first track is rationality: what do the facts say? You work out the problem like an engineer: calculating actual probabilities and weighing the evidence objectively.

The second track is psychology: what biases might be distorting your judgment? Munger identifies the subconscious influences where the brain automatically does things that are generally useful but often malfunction.

Munger identified 25 tendencies that he used as a checklist when making decisions:

  1. Reward- and punishment-superresponse tendency
  2. Liking/loving tendency
  3. Disliking/hating tendency
  4. Doubt-avoidance tendency
  5. Inconsistency-avoidance tendency
  6. Curiosity tendency
  7. Kantian fairness tendency
  8. Envy/jealousy tendency
  9. Reciprocation tendency
  10. Influence-from-mere-association tendency
  11. Simple, pain-avoiding psychological denial
  12. Excessive self-regard tendency
  13. Overoptimism tendency
  14. Deprival-superreaction tendency
  15. Social-proof tendency
  16. Contrast-misreaction tendency
  17. Stress-influence tendency
  18. Availability-misweighing tendency
  19. Use-it-or-lose-it tendency
  20. Drug-misinfluence tendency
  21. Senescence-misinfluence tendency
  22. Authority-misinfluence tendency
  23. Twaddle tendency
  24. Reason-respecting tendency
  25. Lollapalooza tendency

You can read more details on each tendency here: Talk Eleven.


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