When evaluating a new opportunity, ensure it has a positive worst-case scenario, potential for exponential growth, and long-term sustainability for compounding benefits.
When evaluating a new project, think about three questions before we say yes to it:
- Is there no way that this is a failure?
- Is there an exponential upside if it works out long-term?
- Can you stick with it long enough to see compounding benefits?
The first question ensures a positive outcome regardless of the results. For example, the worst-case scenario when writing a newsletter could be having no subscribers. Nevertheless, in such cases, you still gain a better understanding of what you have learned and written about.
The second question ensures that the reward is nonlinear, meaning it offers a higher upside and less competition, as others may give up before seeing results.
The third question ensures that the plan is feasible. This is important because if you make an impossible plan, you won't be able to persist and see the compounding benefits of your progress.
Of course, besides all these, you should also consider opportunity cost. However, these three questions serve as useful heuristics to filter out non-ideal opportunities.